Friday will feature thunderstorms with light to moderate rain in the Northern Plains. This unsettled weather pattern will continue into the Independence Day holiday Saturday over the northern and western Plains through western Midwest. » More DTN Weather Commentary
There were two Usda reports out this morning, a supply and demand report and the stocks on hand as of Dec 1 of 2006. Production was raised due to a slight increase in yield and exports were also raised slightly. The net effect is an increase in ending stocks of long grain from 20.6 million cwt. to 22.1 million cwt. I feel that if we stay on course that use is about 5 million cwt to high, and if were lowered in future reports this would bring stocks up to 27.1 million cwt. Last years final was 32.7 million cwt.
The stocks report showed long grain rough rice stocks at 109 million cwt this as compared to 124 million the previous year. These numbers reflect stocks as of DEc 1 in their respective years.There are also some milled stocks on hand but those number are smaller and are not two different this year vs last year.
These are not bullish numbers,but the numbers have not meant much as of late. Specs have bought the market and it has gone up and the cash market has not moved as much and basis gets wider. If the other grains do not affect rice I would guess we go lower today. The market has had a pretty good run the last two weeks, someone may buy the market up today but it is hard to see the reason. Although I do not think this market going to crash due the trend in all commodities and with the acreage cut in the 2007 crop. I have not looked at the other reports yet, they could have some influence. More on the other report in a few minutes.